LIP Lisboa
The LxPg Model: A Tool for Long-Term Galactic Cosmic Ray Forecasting
by
→
Europe/Lisbon
LIP-Lisboa/3-311 - Sala de Seminários (LIP Lisboa)
LIP-Lisboa/3-311 - Sala de Seminários
LIP Lisboa
40
Description
The modulation of galactic cosmic rays, driven by the evolution of the heliospheric magnetic field, strongly influences the intensity of cosmic rays reaching near-Earth space. Characterizing this process is crucial both for advancing our understanding of cosmic ray transport and for assessing radiation exposure and related hazards in space environments. Here we present the LxPg model, a newly developed forecasting framework built upon our previous work, designed for the long-term forecasting of galactic cosmic ray fluxes. The model is the result of a collaboration between the LIP laboratory in Lisbon (Lx) and the University of Perugia (Pg), and is based on a numerical description of charged-particle transport in the heliosphere and its dependence on solar activity. The LxPg model has been validated using multispecies flux measurements from space-based instruments such as PAMELA, AMS-02, and ACE, through a revised Hilbert-Huang-based filtering and cross-correlation strategy between delayed solar proxies and effective model parameters.Compared with the previous version, it demonstrates improved performance across a broad multichannel and multispecies testing dataset spanning different energy ranges and solar phases. These advancements enhance its applicability to space radiation monitoring and forecasting. Furthermore, when coupled with solar-proxy forecasting models, LxPg enables decadal-scale predictions of galactic cosmic-ray fluxes, thereby supporting long-term planning and radiation-risk assessment for future space missions.